Postdoctoral Fellow, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business
In 2024, I received my PhD from Sciences Po, having studied under the supervision of Carmen Reinhart (Harvard University) and Stéphane Guibaud (Sciences Po)
Former: Mossavar Rahmani Fellow at Harvard University; Economic Advisor at the World Bank, Office of the Senior Vice President and World Bank Group Chief Economist
with Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff
Media Coverage includes: Yahoo Finance, Protos.com, Terra.com (Brazil), KoinMedya (Turkey), CoinDesk
with Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch
NBER, CEPR, IMF Jacques Polak Conference 2023
Media Coverage: NBER Digest, Central Banking, Observatory Finsansowy ... and Matt Levine's Newsletter from July 1, 2024.
The underlying dataset is available here.
with Sebastian Horn
Abstract: Sovereign defaults are conventionally believed to trigger outright exclusion from international capital markets. We challenge this notion using a novel loan-level dataset of all 54,881 loans and bonds issued by 120 emerging markets and developing economies to private external creditors since 1970. We show that sovereigns almost always retain partial market access, even during years of outright default. Instead, defaults are costly because they erode a sovereign's creditor base. We find that defaulters rely on a narrower set of creditors, enter into fewer and smaller loan agreements and experience a contraction in new credit volumes of more than 50 percent that persists for over a decade. To rationalize these patterns, we build a model with an endogenous creditor structure and illustrate how default-induced, reputation-driven creditor attrition has negative long-run effects on borrowing conditions and debt-carrying capacity.
NBER Working Paper with Juan P. Farah Yacoub and Carmen M. Reinhart.
Media Coverage: NBER Digest, Reuters, Foreign Policy, Spiegel (Germany), Spiegel (English), Finance Yahoo, El Pais (Spain), DW (Venezuela), Saude Mais (Portugal), Surabaya Post (Indonesia), The Bharat Express News (India), Today Line (China) , Vietnam Plus, Surabaya Post (Indonesia), Voice of Africa
Summary Pieces: Open Society Foundation Publication, VoxEU
With Sebastian Horn, Aart Kraay and Rita Ramalho
R&R at the World Bank Economic Review
Video of me presenting the paper is available here, starting at Minute 45:00.
Project Syndicate with Carmen Reinhart, also published in El Economista (Mexico), Gulf Times (Qatar), Financial Post (Canada), The Jordan Times, The Asset, The Business Standard (Bangladesh), China Global Television Network, Europe Table (Germany), Tanea (Greece), Financial Advisor (USA), Tageblatt (Luxembourg), El Financiero (Costa Rica), Afrimag (Morocco)
Policy Note on ways to improve the IMF/World Bank Low Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework
World Bank Blog with Carmen Reinhartcand Kathryn Holston, also published in French, Arabic, Spanish and Chinese (Mandarin)
VoxEU with Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch. Republished as World Bank Blog.
VoxEU with Juan Farah Yacoub, Rita Ramalho and Carmen Reinhart.
Co-authored chapter 5 on the role of sovereign debt and default risks in the economic recovery of EMDEs from the Covid19- pandemic.
Media coverage includes: Financial Times and Financial Times, Reuters, Deutsche Welle, Daily Mail, Le Figaro
Crédit photo: Alexis Lecomte
